Since the second week of March, the weekly arrivals have started reducing. The stocks being held at the various centers are also reducing. Stockists who were holding back stocks in anticipation of higher prices have also started liquidating their products.
SThe prices have declined by nearly $2 per kilo since February. Demand has also revived with the softening of the prices. Good quality stocks are now becoming scarce and the size of the arrivals is also lower.
SThe new crop is widely expected to start arriving in June end. However, good quality stocks which can be exported will start from mid-July. There are enough stocks to meet the demand till June until the new crop starts arriving in the markets.
SWe may possibly see some pressure on the prices in July when the new crop starts. However, since the prices have already softened, we feel the down side risk may not be more than 50c over the current prices.
SOn the other hand, Ramadan demand from the domestic as well as International markets will start soon and may keep the prices steady & firm in the next couple of months with even a possible upward jump during May as demand spikes up without corresponding increase in supplies.
SThe monsoon forecast for the coming season will be ready soon. It is widely expected that this year again the forecasts will be predict a below normal rainfall. Last year, the rainfall had picked up in the latter part of the season and made up for the deficiency in the earlier months. However the delay in the season was a big concern in the markets. But this year, so far, the season is progressing fairly well this year for Cardamom.
SDue to a possible jump in demand and lack of good quality arrivals till June, we strongly advise buyers to cover their requirements till June end.