The 4th and 5th round of picking is almost over. However, there are large stocks with the Planters and Stockists. This has maintained the inflow in the auctions. The arrivals in the auctions are still about 600 – 650 tons weekly. The arrivals are expected to be continuous and there is unlikely to be more than a token gap between the old crop and the new crop.
All eyes are on the weather forecasts and the rainfall estimates which will be issued by the MET department soon. The summer is forecasted to be quite strong this year which may adversely affect the plant health and the moisture level in the soil. The plants themselves are already suffering from fatigue due to the huge production in the current year.
The area under cardamom cultivation has increased in India. This year the total production is estimated to have crossed 25000 tons and may have even reached 26000 tons. Planters estimate that the new crop is likely to be lower by 15%-20% the coming year although it is very early to make forecasts. This will still mean a size of about 20000 tons in the coming year.
In the coming months arrivals will slack down, especially of the good grades. Ramadan demand is likely to pick up soon. The prices are ruling at the lowest levels currently. At these levels the planters are not able to cover their costs of production. The big planters who are financially strong are not selling their produce at these price levels and are holding back their produce in anticipation of higher prices in the coming months. The stockists are also selling the smaller and rejection grades and prefer to hold back the bolder grades for a better price.
Therefore we strongly recommend our buyers to cover their maximum requirements for the coming couple of months as we feel the market may rebound upwards soon.