The season of Cardamom is now ending and the arrivals in the auctions have reduced by about 60% to about 300 tons weekly. The actual may be even lower considering that at least 15% of these stocks are re-pooled since the prices are going up. Most of these arrivals are in the rejection and lower grades.
The new crop arrivals are delayed by about 45 days and are now expected in the end of August. This has pushed the markets upwards by nearly $1 in small grades to $3 in the bold grades in the last month. Further, this delay has also considerably reduced the carry forward stocks of the 2015-16 crop season. This has encouraged stockists and speculators to play in the market and with holding stocks and pushing the prices up further. The range between the smallest and largest grades has widened indicating that the concentration of the speculators is in the bold grades.
All this indicates that the new season will start at high prices. The rains have been healthy since they started and the weather also has been cool. It is still early to make a guess on the crop and a reasonable estimate will be available only in end July or early August. Generally around this period rumors and speculators have a field day in pushing the prices up and the market being sensitive to news reacts almost immediately. Therefore, we feel that the prices will start at high levels whatever that may be and reduce only as the arrivals pick up.
We advise buyers to cover their immediate requirements for the next month or so.